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Covid-19 cases long begun ticking up again in some of the hardest hit countries around the world and, as a consequence, varying degrees of lockdowns have been reintroduced as leaders attempt to save lives and economies.
The second wave of the deadly coronavirus is proving to be more complex to handle than the first despite lessons learnt so far.
However, one thing for certain is that very few countries, if any, are prepared to impose blanket lockdowns. Countries like France, Britain and the United States have seen protests against lockdowns while companies and the general populace continue to feel the devastating effects of the restrictions.
Sub-Saharan Africa has been plunged into recession for the first time in 25 years. Estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other reputable organisations put the contraction between -3,3 and -4,4 percent.
Closer home, the Zimbabwean economy is expected to shrink by around -4,5 percent.
Figures aside, what is the real cost of this economic contraction on the population? Can the 80-plus percent people working in the informal sector take another hit? How many companies will remain operational if the economy closes again? Who will shoulder the cost of another lockdown? How long can sectors that are still restricted by Covid-19 regulations stay afloat?
All this comes on the back of the Government of Zimbabwe’s fake promises where hundreds of millions of dollars were “released” towards families and small businesses, ostensibly to cushion them against the effects of Covid-19. To date, that money is yet to reach its intended beneficiaries.
As things stand, the direct and immediate impact of Covid-19 lockdowns on people’s livelihoods in Zimbabwe is incalculable. With the majority being in the informal sector – few had any savings. Those who did, exhausted them in the first few weeks of the harsh blanket lockdown.
Businesses, those that have managed to reopen, albeit partially, are either in court with their landlords over rentals or dealing with employees they cannot afford to put back on payroll.
Most companies cannot afford to pay their workers a living wage, including Government.
The income drop for both companies and families immediately put the Zimbabwean economy in a comma, which like many other countries it is trying to recover from, just as the festive season beckons.
In this case; can Zimbabwe, reeling from the economic fallout caused by the first and current lockdown, afford another round of blanket containment measures?
According to the International Growth Centre (IGC), countries like Zimbabwe would see more of their people dying not from the virus itself but from starvation.
“Blanket lockdowns imposed in low income countries to contain the spread of the virus, if unmet by a massive national and international economic response, may put even more people at risk of dying than the unmitigated spread of the virus itself,” said the IGC in a report.
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube recently told the 26th Intergovernmental Committee of Senior Officials and Experts (ICSOE) of Southern Africa meeting that “the large informal sector (was) affected most severely”.
Coupled with the lockdown’s impact on schools, public transport and formal employment, which resulted workplace closures – this created the highest economic costs.
Zimbabwe’s construction industry is expected contract by about -11,4 percent, tourism and distribution industry -7,5 percent, education -7,2 percent, financial sector -7,1 percent and manufacturing -10,8 percent in 2020.
This begs the question; what will President Mnangagwa and his team do now that Covid-19 cases are ticking up in Zimbabwe, Southern Africa and the world? Will they condemn people to their poverty-induced deaths by imposing another military-supervised lockdown or will they prioritise the economy? All things considered, can Zimbabwe even afford another lockdown?
The IGC could not have put it any better: “If the income shock suffered by urban workers in the informal sector persists … million(s) of people (in sub-Saharan Africa) could continue to be at risk of severe food deprivation.
“Most of them are in the neighbourhood of the poverty line and live a hand-to-mouth existence. A significant income shock pushes them very rapidly into food deprivation. An additional 9,1 percent of the population immediately fell into extreme poverty as a result of Covid-19, with about 65 percent of this increase resulting from the lockdowns themselves.”
Economist Ronald Tavaka said: “In Zimbabwe right now – the tourism industry, showbiz and entertainment, performing arts, hoteliers and bar owners (including nightclubs and open air venues) are teetering on the brink of collapse. One more sneeze and they are no more.”
Development studies expert Israel Chidende argues that the benefits of lockdowns as a containment strategy for Covid-19 in poor communities and nations such as Zimbabwe where most urban households live in close proximity to each other, are still unknown, thus there is no reason for governments to continue to punish the economy and the populace. Nhau/Indaba
