Crisis or no crisis in Zimbabwe?

•  Ramaphosa changes tact
•  Magashule says ‘will meet whoever we have to meet’
•  ZANU PF adamant ANC team here just for them
•  Will ANC refuse to be bullied by ZANU PF?

The African National Congress (ANC) delegation landed in Harare Tuesday night to a lukewarm reception from the nation, opposition parties and civil society.
Not even ZANU PF managed to raise the enthusiasm, although Obert Mpofu, the party’s secretary for administration tried to put a positive spin to the ANC’s visit by hyping the “liberation movements” and “sister parties” meeting narrative.
From the posts by the likes of Ndavaningi Mangwana, the government spokesperson and George Charamba, the Presidential mouthpiece, it is clear these talks are unwanted by both those in the Government of Zimbabwe and in ZANU PF.
The narrative from ZANU PF and Government is that there is no crisis in Zimbabwe yet these are “crisis talks”. Patrick Chinamasa, the ZANU PF acting spokesperson even released a statement saying the ANC delegation would only meet ZANU PF even though South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa had indicated that the team would meet “ZANU PF and others”.

Is there a crisis or not?
ZANU PF and its leader, who is also the Zimbabwean President, Emmerson Mnangagwa, insist that there is no crisis.
In an interview Wednesday, Dr Wellington Gadzikwa, an academic and political commentator told Nhau that the crisis is real even though the different parties in the country “genuinely view the nature of the crisis differently”.
“Why would this delegation of top ANC leaders brave Covid-19 if there is no crisis? Behind closed doors they tell each other the truth but what then happens is from one sister liberation movement to another the ANC will simply proffer advice,” said Dr Gadzikwa.
He said what is playing out in the media is just “window dressing” by ZANU PF, the state and the opposition.
“The fact that they (Mnangagwa and ZANU PF) have accepted this delegation is an acceptance that there is a crisis, otherwise, they would have chased them away and refused to even entertain them.
“But to accept openly that there is a crisis is a non-starter as it then attracts international attention, which is what this Government does not want. Behind closed doors they will tell each other the truth,” said Dr Gadzikwa.
Other commentators on different platforms have raised the issue of why there have been two delegations from South Africa in the midst of a worldwide pandemic that has claimed almost 900 000 people worldwide with 15 304 of those shared between Zimbabwe and South Africa, as of yesterday, if there is no crisis.
Further, important African Union and SADC meetings are being held virtually, yet powerful people within ZANU PF and the ANC are taking a huge risk to physically meet in Harare.
The ANC delegation is high-powered, apart from Ace Magashule it also includes party national chairman Gwede Mantashe, member of the ANC’s National Executive Committee who is also Defence and Military Veterans Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, Tony Yengeni (chair of NEC on peace and stability), Lindiwe Zulu (chair of NEC on International Relations and Minister of Social Development) and Enoch Gondongwana (also an NEC member).
The South African delegation is meeting with ZANU PF hardliners that make up the Central Committee, among them Obert Mpofu and Patrick Chinamasa.

Change of tact
Could the bringing in of this high-powered delegation by Ramaphosa after their first team was disrespected and dribbled by Mnangagwa, be a change of tact.
It appears the strategy used by Ramaphosa and his strategists is similar to that used previously by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, who used what he called “quiet diplomacy”.
Ramaphosa seems to have come to the conclusion that someone that the hardliners at ZANU PF headquarters would respect and be not so-so-eager to insult and disrespect, could do the job better.
“Power longs longevity. The ANC knows what is at stake here, the fall of one revolutionary party may mean the fall of the rest. South Africa is definitely burdened by Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe must function well for things to be normal and the ANC knows this, which why they are braving Covid-19 to do this,” said Dr Gadzikwa.
So, all that remains is to see if ZANU PF will respect the ANC enough to let them meet everyone else and hear diverse voices or will they bully them like last time.
Other “key stakeholders” – that is – some civic organisations and of course the Nelson Chamisa camp are waiting with bated breath. It is highly likely though that Mnangagwa, will at best, allow them to meet the Political Actors Dialogue (POLAD), a grouping largely believed to be sympathetic to him and ZANU PF.

The conundrum
Dr Godfrey Gandawa, a former top civil servant in Zimbabwe, who was forced into exile by the 2017 coup, also shared his thoughts on this crisis poser shortly before the ANC delegation touched down at Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport.
“…the ANC delegation that arrives in Harare today will not achieve any meaningful outcome. This is because what is widely described as a crisis, means different things to the stakeholders. The conversation starts at cross purposes,” said Dr Gandawa.
“The MDC believes that the crisis is a bilateral dispute between itself and ZANU PF, which can only be resolved by ZANU PF surrendering power to the legitimate winner of the 2018 election. Over the past two years, this has found expression as the ‘crisis of legitimacy’.
“Meanwhile, the so-called G40 believes that the crisis arises from the 2017 coup which ushered in the Mnangagwa regime. The 2017 coup is viewed as the genesis of military interference and state capture. To fix Zimbabwe, the coup must be cured.”
Dr Gandawa went further, saying the South African government did not accept any of these arguments as they recognise Mnangagwa as the legitimate president elected in 2018 and affirmed by the courts.
“As far as the ANC and Ramaphosa’s envoys are concerned, they are not in Harare to negotiate a transfer of power or to relitigate the coup or the 2018 election. As they have repeatedly said, they want to help ZANU PF stabilise the situation so that it can survive this crisis,” said Dr Gandawa.
This gives credence to reports that the ANC and the South Africa’s capitalist system are heavily invested in Zimbabwe and would not want it destabilised any further than it already has.
Some argue that the biggest beneficiary of the sanctions on Zimbabwe is South Africa, Zimbabwe’s biggest trading partner with investments in everything from retail to precious minerals mining.
This may also be South Africa’s way of assuring its business handlers, the investors, that everything in Zimbabwe is under control.
This is why people like political scientist Professor Jonathan Moyo have been calling for Ramaphosa to send an “interparty delegation” drawn from the South African Parliament.